A crude future? COVID-19s challenges for oil demand, supply and prices

Supply and Demand Planning for Crude Oil Procurement in Refineries

The upstream petroleum supply chain is inefficient and uneconomical because of the independence of the four complex and fragmented functions which comprise it. Crude oil exploration, trading, transportation, and refining are functions which may be integrated through unified decision-making facilitated by timely information exchange. This exchange has been problematic because the four business u...

Are Crude Oil, Gas And Coal Prices Co integrated?

Risk premia in crude oil futures prices

If commercial producers or financial investors use futures contracts to hedge against commodity price risk, the arbitrageurs who take the other side of the contracts may receive compensation for their assumption of nondiversifiable risk in the form of positive expected returns from their positions. We show that this interaction can produce an affine factor structure to commodity futures prices,...

Compumetric Forecasting of Crude Oil Prices

This paper contains short term monthly forecasts of crude oil prices using compumetric methods. Compumetric forecasting methods are ones that use computers to identify the underlying model that produces the forecast. Typically, forecasting models are designed or specified by humans rather than machines. Compumetric methods are applied to determine whether models they provide produce reliable fo...

Anticipated and unanticipated effects of crude oil prices and oil inventory changes on gasoline prices

This paper proposes a method of distinguishing between the effect of anticipated and unanticipated changes in oil prices and oil inventories on the US gasoline prices. I show that gasoline price adjustments are faster and stronger for anticipated changes in oil prices and inventory levels than for unanticipated changes. The dynamics of the gasoline price response depends on the relative importa...